Relationships between times to testosterone and prostate-specific antigen rises during the first off-treatment interval of intermittent androgen deprivation are prognostic for castration resistance in men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND Intermittent androgen deprivation (IAD) represents an alternative to continuous AD with quality-of-life benefit and no evidence of inferior overall survival for nonmetastatic prostate cancer. Early markers of prognosis for men treated with IAD have not been described. PATIENTS AND METHODS Men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer were treated with 9 months of leuprolide and flutamide followed by a variable off-treatment interval; AD was resumed when prostate specific antigen (PSA) reached a prespecified value (1 ng/mL, radical prostatectomy; 4 ng/mL, intact prostate). Cycles were repeated until castration resistance (marking the advent of castration-resistant prostate cancer [CRPC]), defined as 2 PSA rises with testosterone (T) ≤ 50 ng/dL. Kinetics and relationships of PSA and T levels were evaluated, with a focus on times to rise in each level, during the first off-treatment interval. Associations with CRPC and prostate cancer mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models controlling for age and Gleason score. RESULTS Each 30-day increase in time to PSA rise was associated with a 21% reduction in the risk of developing CRPC (95% CI, 3%-36%; P = .02). Longer time (≥ 60 days) to PSA rise after rise to T > 50 ng/dL was associated with a 71% reduction in the risk of developing CRPC (95% CI, 92% reduction to 2% inflation; P = .05). Time to first T > 50 ng/dL and PSA doubling time were not prognostic for progression to CRPC. No time interval was prognostic for prostate cancer mortality. CONCLUSION During the first off-treatment interval of IAD, longer times to PSA rise overall and after T > 50 ng/dL were associated with reduced risk of developing CRPC.